By: Naseebullah Khan
Ukraine is the hub of natural resources with holding prime strategic location. Estimated, over 20000 deposits of 194 known minerals are found there. The country is home to Coal, Iron ore, natural Oil and Gas, Manganese, Graphite, Sulphur, Titanium, Mercury, and Timber. It has 7th place in Iron extraction, 8th in Manganese extraction, 6th in Titanium extraction, 2nd in Gallium extraction, 5th in Germanium extraction, 6th in Kaolin extraction, 10th in Zirconium Silicate extraction, 8th in Graphite extraction, 13th in Coal extraction, 10th in Uranium extraction, and 26th place in proven Gas reserves in the world respectively alongside 135 million tons of Oil and 3.7 billion tons of shale oil reserves.
Strategically, it is adjacent to the Black sea through which it is connected with Georgia and Turkey that further paving its way to the Medeterian Sea. On the other side, it has a border with 7 countries at a juncture between Russia and Europe. Owing to home to huge deposits of natural resources and its strategic location__ Ukraine has a prime emplace in Russian, American, and European Union’s foreign policies and has made Ukraine at present, the omphalos of great powers rivalry.
NATO has a long relationship with Ukraine. In February 1994, Ukraine joined NATO partnership for peace and signed Ukraine_NATO distinctive partnership documents. Ukraine is one of the six closest NATO allies. NATO and Ukraine have taken part in joint military exercises time and again. Moreover, NATO has enlarged manifold since the cold war by including many countries in the alliance with special reference to some Soviet Baltic states and has a plan to include Georgia and Ukraine in the alliance too.
For America, Russia has been its harsh rival of the cold war. Though Ukraine has no strategic importance for America__ it is only opposing Russia to help its European friends on a common ground to halt Russian expansion and stop Russia by repeating the episode like of Crimea. For which, while writing this piece 8500 American troops have landed in Germany among whose 1000 US troops will be deployed in Romania and 3000 will be deployed in Poland. Since Crimean annexation, Europe and America have taken many punitive actions against Russia. On the other hand, the US has been providing aid, military training, and equipment to Ukraine too.
For Russia___ Ukraine’s importance is manifold. On one side, for the accomplishment of its expansionist design, as in 2008, the world observed the Russian lust for expansion when it invaded Georgia and again in 2014 Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula. The germs of the current wave of conflict can be traced since then.
Historically, Ukraine was important for the Soviet Union and now Russia as it was the second-most populous country after Russia which was home to immense Soviet agricultural production, defense industries, and an important gateway to Europe. In addition, Russia has constructed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany which passes under the Black sea. By invading Ukraine, Russia wishes regional leverage. Economically, 80 percent Gas supply of Russia goes to central and Eastern European countries passes through Ukrainian territory for which Russia pays billions of dollars in transit fees to Ukraine.
While on the other side, to overcome the threat of NATO which has a strong presence and bases in Eastern European republics Lithuania, Estonia, Lituiya, Romania, and Poland which is unacceptable to Russia and considers it as its encirclement hence, Russia is in the utmost struggle to annex Ukraine.
The hot spot of the conflict is in the Donabe region which is in South and East of Ukraine, where the Russian ethnic separatists known as DPR (Donetsk people’s republic) and LPR (Luhansk people’s republic) have been fighting who, with the help of Russian revolted in Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2014. As per a report of CNN which cited Ukrainian intelligence, total separatists are 35000 who are supported by 3000 Russian Soldiers.
The region is home to 2.3 and 1.5 million people respectively. While total of 8 million Russian ethnics are living in Ukraine. Since 2014, 13000 people including the security forces of Ukraine have been killed. On the other side, Russia has deployed 0.1 million troops along with the border of Ukraine and has been issuing passports to the dwellers of the area. Estimatedly, 5 lac passports have been issued yet.
In 2014 and 2015 Minsk protocols 1 and 2 had taken place between Ukraine, Russian, and the separatists with the mediation by France and Germany. The protocol provided a comprehensive roadmap for ending the war in 2014 and future courses. Some of the important features of both protocols were:
1. Ceasefire between Russia, separatists, and Ukraine in 2014,
2. Decentralization of power in the Donbas region.
3. To improve the humanitarian situation.
4. To ensure local elections in the region.
5. To withdraw military troops and equipment from Ukraine birder.
6. To adopt a program of economic development in the Donbas region.
7. To provide pardon and general amnesty to the people of Donbas.
Unfortunately, the proposals have not been implemented.
Is Russia in a position to invade and annex Ukraine? No. Is a full pledge war possible? No. The Russian plan to annex Ukraine like it did Crimea has exposed as NATO along with the European countries are much ready which they were not during the Crimean crisis. At a juncture, when the UNO has failed to play its role in sorting out the solution of years old conflict, the Minsk protocols still provide a win_win opportunity for all parties.
The writer is a freelance columnist. He tweets at @Naseebk95976870