By: Inshal Haider
Conflicts and tensions among the states due to innovations in military technologies have been a constant feature of international relations since the end of the second world war. The Cold War era witnessed a massive arms race between the superpowers, driven by the quest for nuclear deterrence and strategic superiority. The development of new weapon systems, such as ballistic missiles, submarines, satellites, stealth aircraft, and lasers, shaped global security dynamics and influenced the outcomes of regional conflicts.
However, with the end of the Cold War and the emergence of new threats such as terrorism, cyberattacks, rouge states, and non-state actors, military innovations have taken a different direction. States are now seeking to exploit advances in information technology, artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, and nanotechnology to gain an edge over their adversaries. Thus, military technology innovations profoundly affect the nature and conduct of warfare and the balance of power among the states and actors. Some innovations may enhance the capabilities of existing weapons systems, while others may create entirely new domains of warfare or disrupt existing paradigms. Technological innovations also affect strategic stability, deterrence, crisis management, arms control, and international relations. This advancement in the military armaments is creating insecurity dilemmas between the states due to which the tensions and the conflicts around the world are going to their peaks, especially between the states that do not have good relations. Tremendous insecurity is the development of more powerful and destructive weapons posing a severe challenge to global security and stability. The nuclear arms race has created a situation where any conflict between rival states could escalate into a catastrophic war. The hydrogen bomb, which is much more potent than the atomic bomb, represents a new level of threat that could wipe out entire cities and regions. Instead of using military technology for defensive purposes, some states pursue offensive strategies that increase the risk of confrontation and violence. The tragic consequences of the nuclear attacks on Japan in World War 2 should serve as a warning to avoid such horrors.
If we talk about the insecurity dilemma between India and Pakistan, what always remains the hotline for discussion in this field is that the race for military technology between India and Pakistan is a source of strategic instability and insecurity in South Asia. Both countries have been engaged in a conventional, missile, and nuclear arms race since their independence and have fought several wars and skirmishes over disputed territories and issues. India and Pakistan have also developed distinct types of drones or uncrewed combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) for surveillance and strike missions.
By military reports, India has a larger and more advanced military than Pakistan, with a bigger defense budget and a more comprehensive range of weapons systems. India has also pursued a policy of developing indigenous military technology, such as ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines, fighter jets, satellites, and drones. India’s leading security challenge is China, a superior military and economic power with whom India has a long-standing border dispute. On the other hand, Pakistan considers India its primary threat and has relied on external sources of military technology, such as China, North Korea, France, and the United States. Pakistan has also focused on developing asymmetric capabilities to counter India’s conventional superiority, such as nuclear weapons, tactical missiles, cruise missiles, and UCAVs. Pakistan claims to be the fourth country in the world to use UCAVs in combat operations against terrorists. Thus, the race for military technology between India and Pakistan poses severe risks of escalation and miscalculation in case of a crisis or conflict.
Similarly, the race for military technology between India and China has intensified in recent years, especially after the deadly border clash in 2020, by the report of BBC and USIP, that killed at least 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops. As a result, both countries have invested heavily in their defense capabilities, including nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, missiles, and cyberwarfare.
As Gupta from Carnegie Endowment writes: “China aims to modernize its forces into a world-class military by 2050, and the United States is its primary competitor. India closely monitors Beijing’s military technological progress since this could impact their border dispute.” China is aware of these challenges and has tried to close the gap with India by modernizing its forces and expanding its regional presence. China launched its third aircraft carrier in June 2022 and plans to build more nuclear submarines and stealth fighters. It also tested a hypersonic missile that could evade existing missile defense systems. In addition, China has increased its patrols and exercises along the LAC and built new infrastructure such as roads, bridges, tunnels, and communication networks. Thus, the race for military technology between India and China is unlikely to end anytime soon, as both countries see their rivalry as a matter of national security and prestige. However, both sides also recognize the risks of escalating their conflict into a full-scale war that could involve nuclear weapons.
Alternatively, the tensions among the superpowers are also increasing in the race for advancement and innovations in military equipment. The conflict and strains on the military technologies between USA and China have escalated in recent years as both countries seek to maintain or gain an edge in various domains such as air, space, cyber, and electronic warfare. The United States has struggled to update its arsenals and field innovative technology in innovative areas such as hyper sonics and artificial intelligence. On the other hand, China has exploited dual-use products, forced technology transfer, and espionage to leapfrog decades of military development. As a result, the United States must carefully tend its technology ecosystem, from education, investment, industrial policy, and military applications, to ensure continued technological and military dominance amidst a changing world order. However, most of these trends are going in the wrong direction for the United States, while China boasts more STEM graduates, patents, research papers, and more advanced weapons systems than ever before.
Thus, the future of military innovation will depend on several factors: how states perceive their security environment and strategic objectives; how they allocate resources and prioritize research and development; how they balance cooperation and competition with other actors; how they manage organizational change and cultural adaptation; how they cope with ethical dilemmas and social implications; and how they respond to unforeseen events and disruptive innovations. It is also essential to foster a culture of innovation within military organizations that encourages experimentation, adaptation, and learning from best practices. Moreover, engaging in dialogue and cooperation with allies, partners, and potential adversaries is necessary to reduce uncertainty and mistrust, prevent escalation and conflict, and promote norms and rules for responsible behavior in emerging technologies.
The writer is a student of Defense and Strategic Studies at Quaid-I-Azam University, Islamabad. She is a young writer and can be reached at [email protected].