By: Naseebullah Achakzai
The JRC scientist Fabio Farinosi has predicted that 75 to 95 percent of the wars will be fought on the water in the next 50 to 100 years.
Pakistan and Afghanistan both have been severely affected by climate change which has made both countries water-stressed. The fear is that as both states are dependent on agriculture, hence the effect on this sector will have far-reaching implications for food security, employment, and poverty. Both countries share 9 Rivers including the mighty Kabul River. Lack of management and absence of treaty have risen concerns and worries of the future tussle between two neighboring states.
With the help of India, the Afghan government has started the construction of 13 dams on the Kabul river including the Shahtoot dam, which will affect water flow to Pakistan from 15 to 17 percent which is a huge amount of total flow to Pakistan that is 19 billion cubic meters annually. This will resultantly affect not only the Warsak hydropower dam but will also affect the irrigation and agricultural sectors of the KPK. It has been estimated that the diversion of the Kabul river will affect 80 percent of irrigation of Charsada, 80 percent of Peshawar, and 47 percent irrigation system of Noshara.
Although talks have been taken time and again on 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2015 but all in vain.
According to the UN convention on non-navigation uses of internal watercourses, the Madrid declaration of 1911 on the use of international watercourse, the Helsinki rules if uses of international watercourse 1966, and Berlin rules 2014, all stress upon some principles such as (1) the equitable distribution of shared watercourses,(2) commitment not to cause substantial injury to co-riparian states, (3) all basin states shall, while managing the watercourses of an international drainage basin in their respective territories, have due regards to the obligation not to cause significant harm to other basin states, (4) each basin state is entitled, within its territory, to a reasonable and equitable share in the beneficial use of the waters of an international drainage basin….. without easing substantial injury to a co-riparian state. Moreover, Pakistan is on the lower riparian of the Kabul river basin while Afghanistan is on the upper riparian. This location benefits Pakistan’s stance according to the above-explained rules.
Both states have been suffering water scarcity. The shared waters could help in both once it is used for navigation purposes along with electricity generation and agricultural use. The utilization of this common resource with a shared management mechanism will be a win-win situation for both countries. Sanity demands that both states should cooperate with each other rather than indulging in confrontation.
The writer is a freelance columnist. He tweets at @Naseebk95976870